Contrary to emerging concerns that the changing geopolitical situation is reducing climate budgets, according to the February 2025 research from Kearney, +92% of global CFOs intend to keep or increase their climate related spend. Similarly, BDO's post US election survey found that 77% of CFOs expect to maintain or increase their investments in sustainability regardless of political headwinds, recognising that sustainability both drives innovation (37%) and increases revenue (36%) (Exhibit 1)

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Exhibit 1: 2025 CFO Sustainability Outlook: CFOs See Benefits of Corporate Sustainability

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As we stand to lose 12% of GDP with every degree of temperature rising, carbon removals play a key role in keeping the global emissions within planetary boundaries. While the compliance markets for carbon removal are set to come into force from 2030 onwards, leading companies like Microsoft, Google, J P Morgan and British Airways are already spending billions of dollars in the voluntary carbon market. Why would they? This article explores the incentives driving the carbon removal strategies of the most forward thinking CEOs and CFOs.    

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CUR8 Market Analysis

CUR8's market analysis, supported by data from Climate Focus, CDR.fyi and Allied Offsets, shows that compared to traditional offsets, investment in carbon dioxide removals (CDR) is surging. In 2020, the value of the CDR offtake market was just $14 million, while the value of reduction and avoidance offset retirements was $378 million. By the end of 2024, CDR offtake values had soared to $1.5 billion – nearly double the $815 million value of reduction and avoidance retirements (Exhibit 2). Whilst comparing reduction and avoidance retirements to removal offtake values is not exactly like-for-like - it is a clear indicator of a shift in purchasing behaviour toward the removal market, where the vast majority of demand is for future credits. This shift underscores the growing consensus among leading buyers that the time to buy removals is now, both from a climate and business perspective.  

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Exhibit 2: Carbon Removal Offtake market value and Avoidance/Reduction retirement value. Billion USD - CUR8 Analysis - supported by data from Climate Focus, CDR.fyi and Allied Offsets

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Economic Growth, Not Sacrifice

It’s beginning to become clear that you can’t have growth without green. Indeed, the UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s remark last month, that net zero is ‘the industrial opportunity of the 21st century’, is increasingly being borne out by the data. CBI analysis shows the UK's net-zero economy is currently growing at triple the rate of the overall economy – seeing close to 10% growth in 2024 compared to around 3.3% for the broader economy, and generating £83 billion in value while creating jobs that pay £5,600 more than the national average. The numbers, as Energy Secretary Ed Miliband put it, speak for themselves.

Though it’s true that the change in political winds in the US has brought uncertainty in respect of climate policy, other parts of the world are eagerly seizing the economic opportunity. Net zero contributes (green goods and services) 50% more to economies across the EU than to the UK, while clean energy represented a record 10% of China's GDP in 2024.

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Corporate Momentum

Corporate climate leaders like Microsoft, Google, British Airways, Coca Cola HBC and Meta are doubling down on carbon removals, inking major deals to lock in their future access to removal credits. There are three main reasons for this. First, corporate net zero standards are evolving, and will soon require CDR. Secondly, early adoption of carbon removal offers significant revenue potential. Thirdly, in sectors with a tough road to net zero – aviation and heavy industry, for instance – high-durability removals may in fact cost less than some of the very hard-to-abate emissions cuts. Finally leading buyers are recognising that, by 2030, supply constraints and demand surges are likely to lead to steep rises in the price of high-quality removal credits.

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Four reasons why businesses are buying now  

Let's unpack these. As to the first – corporate standard-setters are evolving into regulatory frameworks. The Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) is expected to launch its corporate requirements for interim carbon removal targets later this month. Updating their guidance for corporates to start their carbon removal journey now to build up their supply and ensure they are prepared for their net zero date. Similar guidance that is expected to be released last this year as part of ISO’s net zero aligned organisation standard. These are expected to align with the revised Oxford Offsetting Principles, which state that carbon removal is required as part of any robust net-zero strategy to remove unavoidable residual emissions, and that businesses should start now (Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 3: Illustrative Net Zero aligned offsetting strategy from the Oxford Offsetting Principles

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Companies ignoring this trend face real financial consequences – the UK's People's Pension recently divested £28 billion from State Street over ESG retreat concerns. Separately, Linda Freiner, Zurich's Chief Sustainability Officer, explained in a recent Wall Street Journal interview that offsets weren’t “the permanent solution” for climate neutrality, adding: "We needed to look at the removal market."

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Secondly, early investment in carbon removal offers significant revenue potential for businesses. Research from McKinsey shows that, products with ESG-related claims secure an addition 8% cumulative growth. In real estate, green buildings are commanding an additional 20% premium, and despite economic pressures, PWC found that consumers are willing to pay 9.7% more for sustainably produced goods. 

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Companies leveraging carbon removal have the opportunity to unlock new market growth, develop carbon-neutralised product and services, and enhance brand perception. This proactive approach not only addresses current market demands but also future-proofs operations against evolving regulations and consumer expectations. As sustainability becomes more critical to market dynamics, early investors in carbon removal are positioning themselves for long-term financial success and competitive advantage.

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Thirdly, cutting emissions to reach net zero is not easy and involves varying costs across sectors. Goldman Sachs Carbonomics (2023) estimates that about half of all emissions can be reduced for under $100 per tonne of CO2. The next quarter, mainly from power generation and heavy industry, cost between $100 and $150 per tonne to abate. The final 25%, from heavy industry (e.g., cement and steel), aviation, shipping, freight, and the built world, is significantly more expensive—ranging from $150 to over $1,000 per tonne (Exhibit 4).

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High-durability removals are increasingly cost-competitive for industries that are harder to decarbonise. At around $150-300 per tonne, making removals an economically viable  decarbonisation option  for sectors with hard to abate emissions, in parallel with reduction efforts.

Exhibit 4: Marginal abatement cost (USD per tonne of CO2e) of emissions reduction levers. Data from Goldman Sachs Carbonomics, 2023

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Lastly, market dynamics favour early movers in carbon removal. In line with other estimates from Oliver Wyman, McKinsey, BCG and the Bezos Earth Fund, by 2030, demand could reach 300 megatonnes a year under a net-zero aligned scenario, with most of it relying on lower durability methods like afforestation. But as standards tighten, buyers are expected to shift towards more durable solutions, such as hybrid and engineered removals. These methods take time to scale, meaning a surge in demand before 2030 could result in significant undersupply. If even 20% (60 megatonnes) of total demand is for durable removals by 2030, there could be a 50–100% shortfall in their availability (Exhibit 5).

Exhibit 5: Estimated 2025 and projected average price for carbon removals in an illustrative net zero aligned scenario

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Even if the cost per tonne of high-durability carbon removal methods like DAC, BECCS, and ocean-based solutions decreases by 2030, scarcity premiums could drive up spot prices for these credits. If prices rise in line with undersupply, the average cost of a durable removal credit could increase from $400 per tonne today to $600 per tonne by 2030. Consequently, the overall average price for all types of carbon removals is expected to rise from $100 per tonne today to over $150 per tonne by 2030.

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The Carbon Credit Asset Class

Early adopters are not only buying now in anticipation of these price spikes to save cost, they see that carbon removal credits will be treated as appreciating  assets on their balance sheet. According to British think tank Rethinking Capital, under International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) rule IAS 37, companies with established climate targets and public expectations to meet them can record decarbonisation costs (carbon credits) as assets rather than expenses. The IASB has confirmed this reading, which applies in more than 140 countries.

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The Bottom Line

2025 is set to be a catalytic year for removals, supported by new standards, higher-quality credits, and a more informed corporate buyers. Early adopters have already acted, while fast followers are now rushing into the market to secure access to premium supply.

Carbon removals represent both an essential climate solution and a significant economic opportunity. As J.P. Morgan noted in its recent "Climate Intuition" report, we need to "build an industry a quarter of the size of oil and gas in less than twenty-five years" to meet climate goals. This represents trillions in economic activity and countless high-wage jobs. 

This approach – commercial, environmental and economic – acknowledges a brutal truth: every degree of warming above 1.5C could cut global GDP by more than 12%, and our current path puts us on track to lose over 26%. Carbon removal isn’t just about protecting nature; it’s about protecting our economy. Removing carbon is good for the planet—they're good for business.